Is it possible to address the labour shortages in some sectors of the economy due to the retirement of the Baby Boomers, the largest generation in the history of the workforce, and the upcoming Generation Z, or the Zoomers, who are the smallest generation through productivity improvements, such as artificial intelligence?
Probably not.
Not Enough Artificial Intelligence Semiconductors
First, it is highly unlikely that we will be able to maintain the level of production of artificial intelligence-capable chips that is required to fundamentally reinvent the industry. The problem is that there are thousands of companies that have to be involved in order to manufacture those chips and 90% of them are in Taiwan. Most of those companies that are involved in the supply chain to keep those fabrication facilities running only make one product for one end user, TSMC. If we lose just a handful of them due to a conflict or some other reason, we lose the ability to make the chip. We don’t have enough chips now and in the foreseeable future to have the processing power to replace workers who are leaving the economy.
AI Takes Away Jobs In Sectors Where There Isn’t a Labour Shortage
AI is good at information processing, it is very poor at doing physical things. AI is good at helping me with my writing, my marketing, but really bad at changing the oil in my car or doing my laundry. I need AI to do the low-level tasks in my life, not the high-level tasks that lead to my unemployment. Artificial intelligence is beneficial for white-collar work, mental work, collation, and correlation. This is particularly useful for professionals such as paralegals, researchers, writers, and editors These are the types of jobs that are likely to be reduced as a result, and that is not where the labour shortage is in Canada and around the world. Over the past 50 years, the Baby Boomers have concentrated on ensuring that their children attend University and secure high-value white-collar jobs. Very few immigrants come to Canada with the dream of being a brick layer. But it is brick layers we need, not more IT people.
North America in Midst of Industrial Re-birth
Third, in a world where the Chinese are rapidly disappearing and North America is undergone an industrial rebirth, we require electricians, welders, and linemen. These are blue-collar jobs that require physical labour; artificial intelligence cannot assist them nearly as much. AI will be a component of the future; however, it will not occur at the same pace as many predict. When it does occur, it will likely disrupt the status quo. The ability of white-collar workers to be more productive will be enhanced by the efficient movement of money in industries such as finance. This will result in a reduction in the number of individuals required to process insurance claims at the back end of a doctor’s office. Additionally, it may be able to assist in the cracking of the genome to increase the productivity of agriculture.
While AI will likely be involved in defence and cryptography to enhance security, AI will not be a significant component of manufacturing. For this to occur, we require more than just AI; we also require robotics and mobile devices. At present, robotics and AI are not yet fully developed. Maybe this will be a significant issue in the 2040s, not the 2020s.
So, can AI address the labour shortages in some sectors of the economy? No, because we need workers who can swing a hammer, braze copper, lift a truss, and physically build the future. AI can’t help us with this.
