(905) 441 0770 allen@allenehlert.com

Why a 3-Year Fixed Mortgage May be a Bad Choice in 2024

by | December 4, 2023

Why You Should Avoid Choosing a 3-Year Fixed Mortgage in 2024

Thinking of getting a three-year fixed mortgage in 2024? You might want to reconsider. While some people are tempted to time the market and assume that interest rates will go down, this strategy is risky and can lead to costly mistakes. In this blog post, we’ll explore why choosing a three-year fixed mortgage based on future interest rate expectations may not be a good idea.

Unreliable Market Timing

Timing the market is largely unreliable, even for experts. Trying to predict interest rate movements is a gamble that can go either way. In recent years, expectations of interest rate declines haven’t aligned with reality. It’s best to avoid making decisions based on uncertain market predictions.

Inverted Yield Curve and Higher Rates

The inverted yield curve suggests a possible recession, which could lead to higher interest rates. Currently, short-term interest rates are higher than longer-term rates, resulting in higher prices for shorter-term mortgages. Opting for a three-year fixed mortgage might mean paying a higher interest rate in the long run.

Low Payout Penalties and Flexibility

Consider choosing a lender that offers low payout penalties, allowing you to switch to a different lender if interest rates go down. This gives you the flexibility to take advantage of potentially lower rates without being locked into a higher rate for three years.

Fixed Rate Mortgages
Fixed Rate Mortgages

Focus on Lowest Interest Rate

When choosing a mortgage, focus on getting the lowest interest rate available at the time. Rather than banking on rates dropping in three years, prioritize the present. Currently, a five-year fixed mortgage is a better option compared to a variable rate or a three-year fixed mortgage.

Protecting Against Interest Rate Increases

Opting for a three-year fixed mortgage can provide protection against potential interest rate increases. If rates do go up or the economy enters a recession, you’ll have the security of a fixed rate for the initial three years. This can offer peace of mind and stability for budgeting.

Consider Professional Advice

Instead of making buying decisions based on future interest rate expectations, it’s crucial to seek professional advice. An expert can guide you through the mortgage options available and help you make an informed decision. Avoid unfamiliar options and rely on the expertise of a mortgage professional.

Choosing a three-year fixed mortgage in 2024 based on the expectation of interest rates declining is not advisable. Market timing is unreliable, and there are factors, such as an inverted yield curve and potential interest rate increases, that may work against you. Focus on the current lowest interest rates and seek professional advice to make the best decision for your financial situation.

Mortgage and Money Radio Logo
Allen Ehlert

Allen Ehlert

Allen Ehlert is a licensed mortgage agent. He has four university degrees, including two Masters degrees, and specializes in real estate finance, development, and investing. Allen Ehlert has decades of independent consulting experience for companies and governments, including the Ontario Real Estate Association, Deloitte, City of Toronto, Enbridge, and the Ministry of Finance.

Variable Mortgage Calculations

Variable Rate Mortgages: Not All Calculated the Same

Canadians are changing their preferences for mortgages. With a recent decrease in interest rates and speculation that more could be coming, brokers have been advising their clients to return to variable-rate mortgages from the 5-year fixed mortgages that have been the...
Insolvency

Mortgage Term: Insolvency

Discover what insolvency means, the types of insolvency, and how insolvency can impact your credit and your mortgage options.

40 Year Mortgage

40 Year Canadian Mortgages: What You Need to Know

Discover the implications of 40-year mortgages in the Canadian real estate market. Explore the impact on homeowners, developers, and government policies. Find out the pros and cons of extended mortgage terms and seek professional advice before making a decision. Stay informed about interest rate changes and government initiatives for affordable housing.

Condition of Sale of Buyer's Property

Condition of Sale of Buyer’s Property

Navigating the real estate market can be complex, especially when conditions like "sale of current property" clauses—commonly referred to as Sale of Buyer’s Property (SBP) conditions—come into play. With the cooling real estate market, these conditions have made a...
Rural Properties

Mortgages On Rural Properties

Mortgage lenders in Canada are often hesitant to finance properties in rural areas or properties with active farms for several reasons: Marketability and Resale Value Loan-To-Value Property Appraisal Challenges Zoning and Use Restrictions Maintenance and Condition...
PrePayment Privileges

More Than Rate: Pre-Payment Privileges

Learn about the different kinds of prepayment privileges and discover why prepayment privileges are more important than interest rate when it comes to lowering the cost of your mortgage.

Divorce: 4 Mortgage Options

Divorce: 4 Mortgage Paths to Moving Forward

Divorce and your mortgage: 4 paths to moving forward. Discover the option that works for you.

Insufficient Reserve Fund

Understanding Condo Reserve Funds

Discover what a condo reserve fund is, the signs it may be insufficient, and how to discover and avoid condos with insufficient reserve funds.

Employee Benefit Plan

Mortgage Term: ESOP

Discover what an ESOP is and how it can support your mortgage application particularly under a Net Worth Program.

Trigger Point

How the Trigger Point Impacts Canadians

With interest rate hikes, homeowners are facing the potential detonation of a financial bomb tied to their mortgages, the trigger rate. Let's get into how a trigger point on a fixed-payment, variable mortgage can have such a strong impact on Canadians: Impact of...